Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 21.882584 23.787800 25.845480 28.243821 30.976199 34.008612 37.651449
2025-11-09 18.922232 21.521074 24.521845 28.285142 32.939777 38.592193 46.110305
2025-11-16 16.756915 19.729697 23.346020 28.159201 34.542134 42.940658 55.238888
2025-11-23 15.136263 18.320004 22.359961 28.011067 35.972202 47.236603 65.320677
2025-11-30 13.861201 17.159156 21.492869 27.816645 37.210905 51.414285 76.324247
2025-12-07 12.901467 16.285420 20.870136 27.818197 38.656765 56.114729 89.574119
2025-12-14 12.067374 15.485520 20.238938 27.684073 39.816451 60.535876 103.819439
2025-12-21 11.655163 15.221671 20.322705 28.606930 42.787728 68.716845 128.947216
2025-12-28 10.988116 14.530192 19.698958 28.317165 43.620305 73.111360 147.779383
2026-01-04 10.465396 14.004442 19.269430 28.276701 44.865291 78.603541 172.335466
2026-01-11 10.073102 13.639710 19.049221 28.548658 46.718464 85.863393 206.631762
2026-01-18 9.615437 13.142056 18.573682 28.314731 47.534434 91.005417 238.265841
2026-01-25 9.183360 12.666750 18.113550 28.088798 48.400208 96.728114 278.167287
2026-02-01 8.824809 12.284660 17.778086 28.057106 49.685327 104.019637 333.352615
2026-02-08 8.473795 11.892983 17.396704 27.897133 50.669110 110.899161 397.069287
2026-02-15 8.151859 11.528717 17.034434 27.733646 51.620801 118.098824 476.054274
2026-02-22 7.850132 11.179957 16.673530 27.533537 52.455038 125.326841 572.353074
2026-03-01 7.602966 10.906698 16.424654 27.530904 53.775619 134.794688 714.925062
2026-03-08 7.354211 10.617394 16.127219 27.396732 54.744461 143.550175 887.571836
2026-03-15 7.272230 10.601708 16.317974 28.304676 58.639894 165.656108 1364.105577
2026-03-22 7.030695 10.302896 15.971214 28.018789 59.221583 174.629417 1735.331662
2026-03-29 6.837345 10.077422 15.746207 27.978686 60.505621 187.656638 2391.185128
2026-04-05 6.694848 9.932664 15.662645 28.246391 62.761653 207.092920 3771.079529